The discussion around welcome series benchmarks really splits into two camps. One still holds onto traditional, fixed percentages for success, while the other, more modern camp argues that your own data is the only benchmark that truly matters.
Camp A: The Traditional Benchmarkers
This camp looks for concrete numbers to measure success. On Honest Ecommerce, for example, both host Chase Clymer and guests like Michael Epstein have mentioned 20% as a historically “good” open rate for a standard campaign. The logic is that having an external target helps you know if you're in the right ballpark. If your welcome series open rates are consistently below 20%, something is likely off with your subject lines, audience, or initial offer. This gives you a clear signal to start troubleshooting.
The problem, of course, is that these numbers are often based on outdated industry averages from before Apple’s Mail Privacy Protection, which artificially inflates open rates. A single number also can’t possibly account for the immense variation between a brand selling $500 treadmills and one selling $15 socks, or the difference between a pop-up offering 10% off versus one offering a free gift.
Camp B: The Relative Performance Advocates
This school of thought, which I find much more practical, says to forget external benchmarks. As guest Chase Dimond noted on Honest Ecommerce, open rates have become a “gray thing right now.” The only numbers that matter are your own. The most powerful insight here comes from Jimmy Kim on the Shopify1Percent podcast. He points out that automated emails, like a welcome flow, consistently get 2 to 3 times higher open and click-through rates than one-off campaigns. He also states they generate over 50% higher revenue per recipient.
This gives you a clear, actionable benchmark that is perfectly tailored to your business. The success of a Klaviyo welcome series isn't whether it hits a 40% open rate, but whether it dramatically outperforms your weekly newsletter. This approach is about measuring the flow against your other email marketing efforts to see if it’s doing its specific job: converting your most engaged new subscribers at a high rate.
I'm firmly in Camp B. While a 20% open rate is a fine historical footnote, it’s a dangerously misleading target today. Your welcome series subscribers are your warmest, most engaged audience segment. They just asked to hear from you. Their engagement should be sky-high compared to your general list, and if it's not, you know there’s a problem.
Focusing on a fixed open rate is a vanity metric. What matters is the trend and the comparison. Is your click-through rate 3x your campaign average? Is the “placed order rate” in Klaviyo significantly higher? As Klaviyo expert Jessica Totillo Coster advised on Firing The Man, you have to track the full funnel: opens, clicks, conversions, and revenue. That tells the real story of whether your welcome series is effective.
So, what should you actually do? For your very first email in the sequence, you can loosely aim for a high open rate, maybe 40% or more, just to confirm your sign-up form and offer are technically working and compelling. But don’t stop there. Immediately establish your internal benchmarks. Go into Klaviyo and pull the average open rate, click rate, and placed order rate for your last 10 campaigns. Now, compare that to your welcome flow's performance. The flow should be crushing those campaign numbers. If it isn't, you don’t have a benchmark problem, you have a content problem. Revisit your offer, your brand story, and the value you provide. Scott Austin gives a ton of practical ideas for this on The Shopify Solutions Podcast. A strong welcome series is about building a real relationship, not just hitting an arbitrary number.
