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Tariffs, Sentiment & Spending: What the Data Says About Q2

Ecommerce Playbook · with Steve Rekuc · April 8, 2025 · 20 min

Summary

Q1 data indicates significant shifts in consumer behavior with record low sentiment for future purchases and a strong preference for saving over spending. Ecommerce operators must adapt strategies to address increased price sensitivity and acquisition challenges in a turbulent Q2, focusing on retention and efficient ad spend.

Key takeaways

Themes

consumer behaviordata analysiseconomic impactmarketing strategy

Topics covered

ad performance (facebook andromeda)consumer confidencecustomer acquisitiondirect to consumer confidence index (dtcci)economic uncertaintypurchase sentimentq2 forecasttariffs

Episode description

In this episode of the Podcast, Richard is joined by Steve Rekuc, our Director of Data, for a deep dive into what Q1 taught us — and what’s coming next.We’re breaking down the latest from our Direct to Consumer Confidence Index (DTCCI) and revealing what macroeconomic signals, consumer sentiment, and real brand performance tell us about the road ahead.Spoiler: It’s not just vibes anymore — the data shows real shifts in behavior that you need to understand.What You’ll Learn in This Episode:Why Q1 consumer sentiment hit record lowsHow shoppers are thinking (and acting) in the face of economic uncertaintyWhat our data reveals about new customer acquisition strugglesThe impact of tariffs, stock market drops, and shifting confidence on Q2 forecastsHow Facebook’s Andromeda update is influencing ad performance (hint: high CTR, low CVR)Why future and present purchase sentiment matters more than everWhat our MER based DTCCI forecast predicts for April and beyondWhether you’re a DTC founder, performance marketer, or ecommerce operator, this conversation is packed with insights to help you navigate a turbulent Q2.Show Notes:Go to https://your.omnisend.com/CTC to get 20% off your first 3 months with code CTC20.Get our Tariff Relief Plan: http

Frequently asked about this episode

What does this episode say about consumer behavior?
Expect continued downward pressure on consumer spending in Q2, with shoppers prioritizing saving over discretionary purchases.
What does this episode say about data analysis?
Re-evaluate customer acquisition strategies as new customer acquisition faces increasing struggles indicated by data.
What does this episode say about economic impact?
Adjust ad targeting and messaging to reflect increased price sensitivity and a preference for value, especially with platforms like Facebook showing high CTR but low CVR.
What does this episode say about marketing strategy?
Focus on customer retention and loyalty programs to counteract new customer acquisition challenges and maximize existing customer value.
What does this episode say about consumer behavior?
Develop a "Tariff Relief Plan" or similar initiatives to help consumers and businesses mitigate the impact of increased costs, potentially incorporating flexible payment terms.

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