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Consumer Confidence vs Rising Oil Prices

Ecommerce Playbook · with Steve Rekuc · May 21, 2026 · 17 min

Summary

This episode breaks down current DTC ecommerce trends, revealing a 14.5% year-over-year revenue growth despite flat acquisition efficiency. It emphasizes the importance of strategic ad spend and channel diversification, especially heading into key promotional periods like Memorial Day and Father's Day. The discussion highlights improved consumer confidence and a decrease in discounting compared to previous years, offering a positive outlook for brands that optimize their spending and adapt to macro trends.

Key takeaways

Themes

paid acquisitionanalytics & attributiondtc strategyfinance & fundraising

Topics covered

dtc indexrevenue growthad spend efficiencycustomer acquisition costamer modelingtiktok shopsconsumer confidencediscounting strategiesmothers day performancememorial day predictionsfathers day spendingoil prices impact on margins

Episode description

In this episode, Steve Rekuc breaks down the latest DTC Index findings showing 14.5% revenue growth year-over-year, even as brands face margin pressure. We dive into Mother's Day performance data and what it signals for Memorial Day and Father's Day spending patterns.Topics Covered:14.5% revenue increase with only 2% AMER decline Mother's Day performance and Memorial Day predictions Why discounting is down year-over-year Amazon cannibalization testing methodology TikTok Shops incrementality analysis Macro trends affecting consumer confidence Oil prices and their impact on DTC margins Key Insight: Brands increased ad spend 18% while maintaining near-flat acquisition efficiency - showing significantly improved spending power in the current market.Show Notes:Go to http://outersignal.com/thread to get 50% off your first two monthsExplore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engineThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

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Frequently asked about this episode

What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
DTC brands are experiencing significant revenue growth (14.5% YoY), driven by new customer acquisition (15.6% YoY) with ad spend up 18%.
What does this episode say about analytics & attribution?
Despite increased ad spend, acquisition efficiency (AMER) decreased by only 2%, indicating stronger spending power and effective diversification into channels like TikTok Shops.
What does this episode say about dtc strategy?
Consumer confidence is rising, with consumers more willing to spend than save, suggesting a favorable environment for upcoming sales holidays.
What does this episode say about finance & fundraising?
Discounting is down year-over-year, implying less pressure on brands to offer deep promotions and potentially healthier margins.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Strategic investment in diverse channels and incremental spending models (like those at CTC) are crucial for efficient customer acquisition and sustained growth.

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