If I were you, the very first thing I'd do is define what at-risk means for your specific brand and products. I see a lot of people jump straight to tactics, but as Fiona Stevens pointed out on Ecommerce Coffee Break, your expected repurchase time frame is completely unique to you. A mattress brand’s “at-risk” window is years, but for a coffee brand, it could be a matter of weeks. You can’t build a good strategy until you know that number.
So in week one, I’d dive into my order data and calculate the average time between a customer's first and second purchase. Let's say it's 45 days. I’d then create my first at-risk segment: customers who are past 60 days without a second purchase. My first move wouldn’t be a discount. Instead, I’d send them an email asking for feedback or introducing them to a new product line they haven’t purchased from before. The goal is to re-engage them with value, not just a coupon.
In month one, I’d get more sophisticated. I'd start segmenting that at-risk group by their lifetime value. For the highest-value cohort, I’d try something that doesn’t scale, like sending a personal video to check in, an idea I got from Oli Bridge. For everyone else, I’d build an automated, low-frequency email flow. William Harris and his guest Jason Anderson talked about this on the Up Arrow Podcast. They made the case for thoughtful monthly touchpoints, which keep you top of mind without burning out your audience.
I’d completely ignore trying to win back customers who were clearly a bad fit. This was a huge takeaway for me from listening to Kristen LaFrance on Honest Ecommerce. She makes the point that with acquisition costs rising, you have to focus on keeping your best customers, not desperately chasing every person who leaves. Some customers churn because they were never right for your brand in the first place. Let them go.
The biggest trap I’d avoid is making discounts the default weapon. It's a common tactic, as Sep Advani mentioned, but it can really devalue your brand and just attracts people who will leave again as soon as the promotion is over. A discount should be a strategic, last-resort tool for a specific, high-value segment, not a blanket solution. It's one of the most important Customer Retention And Loyalty Strategies to get right.
