Ecommerce Playbook artwork

The Truth About Incrementality: Are You Measuring Your Ads Wrong?

Ecommerce Playbook · with Richard Gaffin · January 28, 2025 · 33 min

Summary

This episode challenges the conventional understanding of incrementality testing in ecommerce advertising. It reveals why applying test results inconsistently can lead to flawed insights and discusses the dynamic nature of ad platforms. Ecommerce operators will learn why a rigid, scientific approach to testing often fails in a fast-paced environment and how to bridge the gap between theoretical incrementality and actionable, real-world ad optimizations for their business objectives.

Key takeaways

Themes

ad measurementad platform strategydata-driven decision makingincrementality testing

Topics covered

ad measurement mistakesconsistent testing systemscreative testing insightsdata-driven advertisingdynamic ad environmentsgeo holdout testinghierarchy of metricsincrementality testing challengesoperationalizing test resultsscientific methodology in marketing

Episode description

Are you really measuring your ads the right way? In this episode we dive deep into the world of incrementality testing—what it is, why it’s so important, and why most brands struggle to operationalize it effectively. We break down the biggest mistakes marketers make when it comes to ad measurement and how to avoid them. Learn the secrets to building a consistent testing system, understanding your ad performance, and driving better results for your business. Key topics covered: What is incrementality testing? Why it’s so hard to apply test results consistently How to turn data into actionable insights The tools and frameworks to operationalize your findings If you want to stop guessing and start making data-driven decisions, this episode is a must-watch. Show Notes: Check out Motion’s Creative Trends 2025: motionapp.com/creative-trends Get our Prophit System: prophitsystem.com The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.co

Frequently asked about this episode

What does this episode say about ad measurement?
Avoid making significant changes to ad platform settings (e.g., optimization settings, attribution windows) between running an incrementality test and applying its results. Inconsistent inputs render results useless.
What does this episode say about ad platform strategy?
Recognize that incrementality test results are static and represent a moment in time. Variables like seasonality, creative mix, and platform updates drastically affect applicability, so historical results need careful re-evaluation.
What does this episode say about data-driven decision making?
Prioritize a hierarchy of metrics starting from bank account balance and contribution margin, then moving to revenue and customer acquisition metrics. This ensures objective truth guides decision-making over potentially misleading platform-reported data or survey results.
What does this episode say about incrementality testing?
To combat the dynamic nature of ad platforms, focus on building a robust system for continuous, iterative testing. Understand that consistent small insights from ongoing experimentation are more valuable than a "perfect" but outdated large-scale test.
What does this episode say about ad measurement?
Embrace an "exercise in patience" when it comes to incrementality. While the industry favors speed, accurate measurement and consistent application of results require a willingness to observe and sustain conditions over longer periods. Test less frequently but more rigorously.

Listen