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Setting 2026 Goals, Incrementality Lessons from BFCM and Amazon Brand Bidding

Marketing Operators · December 23, 2025 · 67 min

Summary

This episode dives into goal setting for 2026, dissects key incrementality lessons learned from Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) campaigns, and explores the nuances of Amazon brand bidding strategies. It provides actionable insights for e-commerce operators looking to optimize their marketing spend and measure the true impact of their campaigns.

Key takeaways

Themes

paid acquisitionanalytics & attributionamazon & marketplacesdtc strategy

Topics covered

2026 goal settingbfcm incrementalityamazon brand biddingholdout testingmarketing attributionpaid media strategy

Episode description

This week, the team breaks down what recent platform moves signal for operators heading into 2026 — starting with Shopify’s Winter Editions and the growing role of Sidekick inside the Shopify ecosystem.They discuss how tools like Sidekick are democratizing data access, reducing operational friction, and changing how lean growth teams analyze performance, build reports, and take action inside the admin.From there, the conversation shifts to BFCM performance and incrementality, with the hosts unpacking what they learned from scaling spend in steps during peak periods. They discuss where incremental gains showed up, where marginal returns began to flatten, and why short testing windows can still offer directional insight even when results are noisy.The team then reacts to and unpacks a tweet about Amazon bidding more aggressively on brand terms, using it as a jumping-off point to explore demand capture during promo periods, brand search strategy, and how branded demand is distributed across Amazon and DTC during high-intent moments.Throughout the episode, a key theme emerges: how operators should interpret signals from major platforms and translate them into proactive strategy rather than reactive tactics.The episode wraps with a candid conversation on 2026 planning, including examples like Connor Rolain’s pyramid-style goal-setting framework, org design considerations, and how growth leaders can balance short-term execution with long-term thinking.MOperators HotlineIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show:https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters00:00:00 – Shopify Winter Editions and the Rise of Sidekick00:06:46 – Data Democratization and AI Inside Shopify00:14:34 – Shopify Collective and Cross-Brand Me

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Frequently asked about this episode

What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
When setting future goals, factor in incrementality testing learnings from past large-scale sales events like BFCM to avoid misattributing organic sales to paid efforts.
What does this episode say about analytics & attribution?
Implement holdout testing on platforms like Amazon to accurately measure the incremental lift of brand bidding campaigns, especially if brand terms are already ranking high organically.
What does this episode say about amazon & marketplaces?
Focus on a holistic understanding of customer behavior across platforms when evaluating campaign performance, as conversions can happen on different channels than initial touchpoints.
What does this episode say about dtc strategy?
Prioritize understanding your incrementality across all marketing channels to make smarter budget allocation decisions and scale effectively.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Leverage data and analytics to prove the value of marketing initiatives and inform strategic planning, moving beyond last-click attribution.

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