Incrementality Testing for Black Friday, Cyber Monday: What to Spend?
Marketing Operators · with Cody Plofker, Connor MacDonald, Connor Rolain · September 1, 2026 · 60 min
Summary
For Black Friday and Cyber Monday, ecommerce operators must prioritize incrementality testing to ensure marketing spend drives true incremental results, not just sales that would have happened anyway. This episode from "Marketing Operators" highlights how leading brands like Ridge and HexClad use control groups to validate the effectiveness of their Q4 campaigns and spending decisions. Understanding incrementality is crucial for optimizing ad spend and avoiding budget waste during peak sales periods.
Key takeaways
Implement incrementality testing with real control groups for major campaigns like BFCM to accurately measure the true impact of increased ad spend.
Challenge your ROAS and CAC metrics by evaluating if spend is truly incremental, rather than just capturing existing demand or purchases that would occur naturally.
Apply the discipline of incrementality testing to all significant marketing decisions, including A/B tests and channel allocations, to avoid scaling non-incremental spend.
Be wary of cannibalization risks when launching new products or campaigns, as demonstrated by the AG1 gummy launch example.
Focus on understanding the true lift from marketing efforts rather than just top-line revenue, especially during high-volume events like BFCM.
“It is so incredibly easy to not drive incremental results the week of Black Friday.” Connor MacDonald (CMO, Ridge), Cody Plofker (Advisor & fmr. CEO, Jones Road), and Connor Rolain (Head of Growth, HexClad) share how they are approaching Q4 planning. Before scaling Black Friday, Cyber Monday spend, both HexClad and Ridge test incrementality with real control groups. That same discipline shapes their AMER vs CAC debate, since neither wants to scale spend that isn’t truly incremental. Also, AG1’s new gummy launch steps up, and so does its cannibalization risk. Powered By Motion https://9ops.co/motion-runneth NeonPixel https://9ops.co/neonpixel Haus https://www.haus.io/operators Richpanel https://9ops.co/richpanel-mops Aftersell https://9ops.co/aftersell-mops Proppel https://9ops.co/weareproppel Operators Newsletter https://9operators.com/
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Implement incrementality testing with real control groups for major campaigns like BFCM to accurately measure the true impact of increased ad spend.
What does this episode say about analytics & attribution?
Challenge your ROAS and CAC metrics by evaluating if spend is truly incremental, rather than just capturing existing demand or purchases that would occur naturally.
What does this episode say about dtc strategy?
Apply the discipline of incrementality testing to all significant marketing decisions, including A/B tests and channel allocations, to avoid scaling non-incremental spend.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Be wary of cannibalization risks when launching new products or campaigns, as demonstrated by the AG1 gummy launch example.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Focus on understanding the true lift from marketing efforts rather than just top-line revenue, especially during high-volume events like BFCM.
