DTC brands achieved 15.2% median revenue growth in H1 2026, but this came at the cost of significantly increased ad spend (28% median growth). This episode breaks down incrementality testing results across platforms, revealing surprising efficiency in AppLovin and a wide spread in Meta performance. Ecommerce operators will learn how to interpret these trends and adjust their paid acquisition strategies for better profitability.
Key takeaways
AppLovin demonstrates exceptional incrementality (171% average across 18 tests), making it a highly lucrative, yet often underutilized, paid channel for DTC brands. Prioritize testing and scaling spend on AppLovin if you haven't already.
Meta incrementality results vary widely (25% to 200%+); brands heavily reliant on Meta for new customer acquisition are likely to see lower incrementality. Diversify your ad spend and focus on understanding your specific brand's Meta incrementality to optimize.
Higher Average Order Value (AOV) is a key driver of stronger Meta incrementality, likely due to longer customer consideration periods. Brands with high AOV products should leverage this by testing longer attribution windows if possible.
Despite overall growth, brands experienced declining efficiency due to higher ad spend. Focus on overall profitability and use incrementality testing to identify channels that truly drive incremental revenue, rather than just reported ROAS.
Consumer confidence is at all-time highs in June, signaling a potentially strong H2 2026. Brands should prepare their strategies to capitalize on this positive consumer sentiment, potentially increasing ad spend on high-performing channels.
In this episode Richard and Steve break down H1 2026 performance data from across the CTC client portfolio, covering brand revenue growth, ad spend efficiency, incrementality testing results by platform, and the latest signals from the D2C Consumer Confidence Index.Topics covered in this episode:Median brand revenue growth of 15.2% in H1 2026Why spend grew 28% while revenue efficiency declinedAppLovin incrementality results across 18 tests (average: 171%)Meta incrementality: average 113.4%, with a wide spread across brandsWhy AOV is a key driver of Meta incrementality outcomesConsumer confidence data: what all-time highs in June mean for H2TikTok Shops, ChatGPT advertising, and Google ROAS trendsHow 7-figure brands can access the sophistication of 9-figure advertisersKey stat: Out of 18 AppLovin incrementality tests, only one came back below 100%. Five returned 225%+ incrementality. The average was 171%.The Common Thread Collective 7-Figure Growth Workshop: http://commonthreadco.com/earlybird26Show Notes:Go to http://outersignal.com/thread to get 50% off your first two monthsExplore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engineThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
AppLovin demonstrates exceptional incrementality (171% average across 18 tests), making it a highly lucrative, yet often underutilized, paid channel for DTC brands. Prioritize testing and scaling spend on AppLovin if you haven't already.
What does this episode say about analytics & attribution?
Meta incrementality results vary widely (25% to 200%+); brands heavily reliant on Meta for new customer acquisition are likely to see lower incrementality. Diversify your ad spend and focus on understanding your specific brand's Meta incrementality to optimize.
What does this episode say about dtc strategy?
Higher Average Order Value (AOV) is a key driver of stronger Meta incrementality, likely due to longer customer consideration periods. Brands with high AOV products should leverage this by testing longer attribution windows if possible.
What does this episode say about finance & fundraising?
Despite overall growth, brands experienced declining efficiency due to higher ad spend. Focus on overall profitability and use incrementality testing to identify channels that truly drive incremental revenue, rather than just reported ROAS.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Consumer confidence is at all-time highs in June, signaling a potentially strong H2 2026. Brands should prepare their strategies to capitalize on this positive consumer sentiment, potentially increasing ad spend on high-performing channels.
