This episode breaks down the true performance of Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025, revealing that despite increasing ad spend, the real wins came from prioritizing returning customers. Ecommerce operators will learn why focusing solely on new customer acquisition and blended ROAS is a flawed strategy for 2026, and how to build a resilient, profitable growth plan by Q4.
Key takeaways
Don't rely on blended LTV or MER/ROAS as standalone metrics; these can mask inefficient ad spend and a lack of focus on customer retention. Instead, segment LTV by acquisition channel, product, and time.
Shift your strategy to prioritize returning customer revenue. While new customer acquisition costs are rising, a 35% increase in returning customer revenue for top brands proves this is where sustainable growth lies.
Implement a Q1 audit to understand your business’s current state: calculate returning vs. new customer revenue split (aim for 30-40% returning), conduct a cohort analysis for LTV, and critically audit your post-purchase experience.
In Q2, focus on the "unsexy work" of fixing fundamentals like rebuilding post-purchase email flows and optimizing SMS strategies to nurture customers acquired earlier in the year for BFCM Q4 conversions.
Understand that scaling often means a natural decrease in AMER (efficiency on new customer acquisition). Don
"t be alarmed by this, but recognize when market conditions exacerbate the drop beyond normal scaling expectations.
👉 Grow your bottom line: https://www.kynship.co/The headlines after Black Friday Cyber Monday were mixed.Spending was up. Costs were up too. Once you factor in inflation, a big portion of that growth disappears.In this episode, I share the actual Black Friday Cyber Monday numbers from our clients and break down what really worked in 2025, and what needs to change heading into 2026.Across our client base, revenue was up 28 percent year over year. Most had a strong Q4. But at the same time, ad spend increased and new customer acquisition became more expensive.The brands that performed well did not rely on finding new channels or waiting for costs to come down. They focused on returning-customer revenue, LTV, and building a business that does not depend entirely on acquiring strangers.If you are planning for 2026 and want a clearer strategy for navigating rising costs, this episode breaks it down.Key Takeaways:00:00 Intro00:30 Industry Analysis & Client Results01:24 The Numbers Breakdown03:13 The Key Insight09:19 2026 Quarterly Playbook09:49 Q1 (Audit Phase)11:30 Q2 (Fix Foundation)13:59 Q3 (Activate & Test)16:23 October (Final Prep)</spa
Don't rely on blended LTV or MER/ROAS as standalone metrics; these can mask inefficient ad spend and a lack of focus on customer retention. Instead, segment LTV by acquisition channel, product, and time.
What does this episode say about customer retention?
Shift your strategy to prioritize returning customer revenue. While new customer acquisition costs are rising, a 35% increase in returning customer revenue for top brands proves this is where sustainable growth lies.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Implement a Q1 audit to understand your business’s current state: calculate returning vs. new customer revenue split (aim for 30-40% returning), conduct a cohort analysis for LTV, and critically audit your post-purchase experience.
What does this episode say about analytics & attribution?
In Q2, focus on the "unsexy work" of fixing fundamentals like rebuilding post-purchase email flows and optimizing SMS strategies to nurture customers acquired earlier in the year for BFCM Q4 conversions.
What does this episode say about dtc strategy?
Understand that scaling often means a natural decrease in AMER (efficiency on new customer acquisition). Don
