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Geo Holdouts, Halo Effects, and the Real Results of Your Ad Spend — With Olivia Kory of Haus Analytics

eCommerce Evolution · with Olivia Kory · April 30, 2026 · 56 min

Summary

This episode reveals how most DTC brands misinterpret their ad performance due to flawed attribution models like MTA. Olivia Kory of Haus Analytics demonstrates, through extensive testing, that platforms like YouTube deliver significantly higher ROAS than reported. It's a must-listen for brands seeking to accurately measure ad spend, optimize channel performance, and unlock hidden growth opportunities through incrementality testing.

Key takeaways

Themes

paid acquisitionanalytics & attributiondtc strategy

Topics covered

incrementality testinggeo holdout testsmarketing attribution modelsyoutube advertising performancemeta advertising optimizationad spend roichannel optimization

Episode description

Most DTC brands are making million-dollar channel decisions based on attribution data that's fundamentally wrong. Olivia Kory — CSO of Haus and the incrementality expert Brett references on stage more than almost anyone — breaks down what it actually takes to know if your ads are working. Spoiler: if you've been writing off YouTube based on MTA, you owe yourself a retest.Inside the episode:Why YouTube's true ROAS is 3.4X what the platform reports — and how Haus's 190-test study across 74 brands proved it (plus why your D2C numbers alone are only half the picture)The right time to start incrementality testing — it's not when you're huge, it's when your business gets complicated enough that turning off ads won't give you a clean answerHow StockX went from barely spending on YouTube to making it their #2 acquisition channel — by running geo holdout tests and acting on the resultsWhy Meta's optimization might be too good — and how brands like Jones Road are improving their iROAS by making changes that look worse in-platformThe surprise winner: AppLovin — Olivia came in skeptical of mobile game ad inventory and got data she didn't expectHaus's new DTC Basics tier — a lower-cost entry point so more brands can stop guessing which channels are actually driving growth Sponsored by OMG Commerce - go to (https://www.omgcommerce.com/contact) and request your FREE strategy session today! Chapters: [00:00] Intro clip — Olivia on treating incrementality as a report card vs. a growth tool[00:22] Introductions & background — Olivia's path from Starcom → TubeMogul → Netflix → Quibi → Sonos → Haus[06:55] What is incrementality? — The randomized controlled trial analogy; geo holdouts vs. click-based attribution[10:45] When should a brand start using incrementality? — The low-to-mid 8-figure inflection point; multi-channel complexity as the signal<

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Frequently asked about this episode

What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Traditional Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA) models are fundamentally flawed and misrepresent true ad performance, leading to करोड़-dollar misallocations.
What does this episode say about analytics & attribution?
YouTube's true ROAS can be 3.4X higher than what platforms report; brands dismissing it based on MTA should retest using incrementality.
What does this episode say about dtc strategy?
Implement incrementality testing when your multi-channel marketing becomes complex, typically at mid-to-high 8-figure revenue, to get clear answers on ad effectiveness.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Meta's optimization can obscure true performance; brands like Jones Road improved iROAS by making changes that initially looked worse in-platform but yielded better overall results.
What does this episode say about paid acquisition?
Geo holdout tests are crucial for establishing causal links between ad spend and sales, enabling objective channel optimization like StockX's shift to YouTube.

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