This episode provides a critical review of 2022 retail performance and offers actionable 2023 predictions for ecommerce operators. It evaluates the accuracy of past forecasts on emerging tech, delivery, and BNPL, offering a grounded perspective on what truly impacted commerce. Essential listening for strategizing in a dynamic retail landscape.
Key takeaways
Don't overemphasize hyped technologies like NFTs, Web3, and the Metaverse for immediate commerce revenue; focus on proven channels.
Closely monitor BNPL services for consolidation and potential market exits, particularly in the US, to anticipate shifts in consumer financing options.
Anticipate Shopify to launch an advertising product or retail media network; strategize early adoption to leverage new customer acquisition channels.
Shein's continued growth to over $30B in sales demonstrates the disruptive potential of agile, fast-fashion models; analyze their strategies for pricing, speed, and targeted marketing.
Factor in potential retail bankruptcies when evaluating partnerships or market stability; focus on financially resilient partners.
Themes
ecommerce platformsfinancial services in retailmarket forecastingretail technology adoption
EP301 - Annual Predictions, NRF Big Show, Year End Recap This ended up being a slightly longer than usual episode, sorry! If we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast (to paraphrase Mark Twain). So here are some timecodes if you want to jump ahead: Recap of the NRF Big Show 1:27 Recap of 2022 Holiday and Full Year Results 22:43 2022 Predictions Scoring 30:34 2023 Predictions 54:51 2022 Predictions Recap Jason: NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don't deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022. Yes Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry Yes Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022. Yes Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores No Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired No Jason Total Score: 3 of 5 Scot: Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS No Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or Jokr goes out of business in 2022 Yes Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue Yes Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US No Fabric gets acquired No Scot Total Score: 2 of 5 Jason pulls out the rare win! 2023 Predictions Jason: At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City) BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL. Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network
Frequently asked about this episode
What does this episode say about ecommerce platforms?
Don't overemphasize hyped technologies like NFTs, Web3, and the Metaverse for immediate commerce revenue; focus on proven channels.
What does this episode say about financial services in retail?
Closely monitor BNPL services for consolidation and potential market exits, particularly in the US, to anticipate shifts in consumer financing options.
What does this episode say about market forecasting?
Anticipate Shopify to launch an advertising product or retail media network; strategize early adoption to leverage new customer acquisition channels.
What does this episode say about retail technology adoption?
Shein's continued growth to over $30B in sales demonstrates the disruptive potential of agile, fast-fashion models; analyze their strategies for pricing, speed, and targeted marketing.
What does this episode say about ecommerce platforms?
Factor in potential retail bankruptcies when evaluating partnerships or market stability; focus on financially resilient partners.
