387. Behind the data: Insights from NRF’s top economists

Retail Gets Real · with Jack Kleinhenz & Mark Mathews · July 22, 2025 · 21 min

Summary

This episode provides a crucial economic outlook for retailers in the second half of 2025, direct from NRF's top economists. It covers key drivers of the US economy, the transformative impact of AI on retail operations and jobs, and strategies for navigating a globalized retail market. Retailers will gain actionable insights to forecast and strategize amidst economic uncertainties.

Key takeaways

• Anticipate economic conditions in the latter half of 2025 by understanding the key drivers of the U.S. economy, as detailed by NRF economists.
• Evaluate the potential impact of AI on your retail operations and workforce, preparing for both job displacement and the emergence of new skill requirements.
• Develop strategies to navigate the complexities of a globalized retail economy, considering interconnected markets, supply chains, and consumer behaviors.
• Utilize robust methodologies and data-driven analysis for forecasting, especially during periods of economic uncertainty.

Themes

Topics covered

Episode description

As the retail industry continues to evolve, understanding the broader economic landscape has never been more important. On this episode of Retail Gets Real, two of NRF’s top economic minds — Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews — join the podcast to break down what’s driving the U.S. economy, what to expect for the second half of 2025 and what it all means for retailers and consumers.(00:00:00) Reflecting on 15 years of economic insight(00:06:40) Forecasting through uncertainty(00:08:16) The rise of AI and the future of retail(00:09:47) The real impact of AI on retail and jobs(00:12:46) Navigating a globalized retail economy(00:18:45) Advice for students, book recs and a look backThe National Retail Federation is the world’s largest retail trade association.Every day, we passionately stand up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed.Resources:• Get ready for Retail’s Big Show in NYC• Become an NRF member and join the world’s largest retail trade association• Learn about our retail education platform, NRF Foundation, at nrffoundation.org• Learn about retail advocacy at nrf.com/advocacy• Find more episodes at retailgetsreal.comRelated:• <a href="https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-chief-economist

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Frequently asked about this episode

What does this episode say about retail & omnichannel?

Anticipate economic conditions in the latter half of 2025 by understanding the key drivers of the U.S. economy, as detailed by NRF economists.

What does this episode say about ai & automation?

Evaluate the potential impact of AI on your retail operations and workforce, preparing for both job displacement and the emergence of new skill requirements.

What does this episode say about founder & leadership?

Develop strategies to navigate the complexities of a globalized retail economy, considering interconnected markets, supply chains, and consumer behaviors.

What does this episode say about retail & omnichannel?

Utilize robust methodologies and data-driven analysis for forecasting, especially during periods of economic uncertainty.

Listen

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