If I were in your shoes, the very first thing I'd do is build a simple, non-negotiable formula for what an influencer is worth to my business before the first outreach.
This is my starting point because it completely changes the dynamic of the negotiation. It moves the conversation from their subjective "value" to your objective reality. In week one, I wouldn't even talk to influencers. I'd spend that time with my own numbers. I'd follow the advice Adii Pienaar gave on the 2X eCommerce Podcast and get crystal clear on my contribution margin for the specific SKUs I want the influencer to promote. That margin tells me exactly how much room I have to play with for any marketing spend, including this deal. Without that, you're just guessing.
Once I have that number, I can start building a projection. I'd look at past performance of similar channels or creators to estimate a realistic conversion rate and, therefore, a projected RPM or ROAS for this collaboration. This becomes my ceiling.
In month one, with my formula in hand, I’d start the outreach and vetting process. When it's time to talk numbers, I'd ignore their rate card initially. Instead, I'd focus the conversation on performance. As Brad Hoos discussed on the Up Arrow Podcast, you have to vet influencers based on their actual ability to drive results, which means looking at their past CPA and performance metrics if they have them. I’d present my offer as a partnership rooted in data. If they’re asking for a flat fee that is three times higher than my data suggests they can generate, the conversation is simple. I’d explain my position calmly and be completely prepared to walk away.
The biggest trap to avoid is getting emotional or operating from a place of fear. Cody Wittig and Taylor Lagasse talked about this on The Bottom Line, how brands see ROAS dip in other channels and then panic-spend on influencers out of a feeling that they "have to be there." That's how you end up overpaying for vanity metrics, instead of properly measuring the results. An expensive deal that doesn't provide a return is far worse for your business than no deal at all. It's about respecting your own data. It’s what Dr. Yev Marusenko would call focusing on the "Actual Purchase" above all else. If the numbers don't support the potential for actual purchases, you thank them for their time and move on to the next one. There are always more influencers. There isn't always more margin.